FORECASTCONTEXT.COM · THE LARGE-SCALE STATE BEHIND THE FORECAST BRIEFINGMOTIONOUTLOOKMETHODSAPI☀ AUTO

FORECAST CONTEXT

DATA THROUGH 2026-10-12 · UPDATED 2026-10-13 11:02 UTC

ERA5 + GFS2.5°DAILY
BriefingStratosphereStrat–trop coupling
NAM_10

NAM 10 hPa

Northern Annular Mode at 10 hPa from standardized polar-cap height (negative = weak vortex). — Baldwin & Thompson 2009