FORECASTCONTEXT.COM · THE LARGE-SCALE STATE BEHIND THE FORECAST BRIEFINGMOTIONOUTLOOKMETHODSAPI☀ AUTO

FORECAST CONTEXT

DATA THROUGH 2026-10-12 · UPDATED 2026-10-13 11:02 UTC

ERA5 + GFS2.5°DAILY
NPJ_PC2

Pacific jet shift (PC2)

Second EOF: positive = jet exit shifted poleward, negative = equatorward. — Winters, Keyser & Bosart 2019