FORECASTCONTEXT.COM · THE LARGE-SCALE STATE BEHIND THE FORECAST BRIEFINGMOTIONOUTLOOKMETHODSAPI☀ AUTO

FORECAST CONTEXT

DATA THROUGH 2026-11-07 · UPDATED 2026-11-08 11:26 UTC

ERA5 + IFS2.5°DAILY
BriefingSouthern HemisphereSouthern Hemisphere
PSA1

Pacific–South American 1

PC2 of monthly Z500 anomalies south of 20°S (EOF1 is the SAM), projected daily. Positive = ridge over the Amundsen–Bellingshausen Seas (El Niño-like). EOF2/EOF3 form a near-degenerate pair, so PSA1/PSA2 can mix; sign conventions vary. — Mo & Higgins 1998, Mon. Wea. Rev. 126, 1581–1596; Mo & Paegle 2001, Int. J. Climatol. 21, 1211–1229, doi:10.1002/joc.685