FORECASTCONTEXT.COM · THE LARGE-SCALE STATE BEHIND THE FORECAST BRIEFINGMOTIONOUTLOOKMETHODSAPI☀ AUTO

FORECAST CONTEXT

DATA THROUGH 2026-10-12 · UPDATED 2026-10-13 11:02 UTC

ERA5 + GFS2.5°DAILY
BriefingTropics & oceansMJO & intraseasonal
RMM1

MJO RMM1

Wheeler–Hendon RMM1 computed in-house: combined EOF of 15°S–15°N OLR, U850 and U200 anomalies (3 harmonics, ENSO regression on Niño 3.4, previous-120-day mean removed). Positive = convection over the Maritime Continent. — Wheeler & Hendon 2004 (MWR 132, 1917); CLIVAR MJO WG forecast convention https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml