FORECASTCONTEXT.COM · THE LARGE-SCALE STATE BEHIND THE FORECAST BRIEFINGMOTIONOUTLOOKMETHODSAPI☀ AUTO

FORECAST CONTEXT

DATA THROUGH 2026-10-12 · UPDATED 2026-10-13 11:02 UTC

ERA5 + GFS2.5°DAILY
BriefingTropics & oceansMJO & intraseasonal
RMM_amp

MJO amplitude (RMM)

√(RMM1² + RMM2²); above 1 = active MJO. — Wheeler & Hendon 2004 (MWR 132, 1917); CLIVAR MJO WG forecast convention https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml