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FORECAST CONTEXT

DATA THROUGH 2026-10-12 · UPDATED 2026-10-13 11:02 UTC

ERA5 + GFS2.5°DAILY
BriefingTeleconnectionsTeleconnections
RPCA_TNH

Tropical/Northern Hemisphere (RPCA daily)

CPC-method rotated-PCA Tropical/Northern Hemisphere pattern rebuilt from ERA5 500-hPa height, daily least-squares fit on patterns interpolated to the day. Positive: highs over the Gulf of Alaska and from the Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic, low over eastern Canada. Winter only (Dec–Feb). — Barnston & Livezey 1987; NOAA CPC