FORECASTCONTEXT.COM · THE LARGE-SCALE STATE BEHIND THE FORECAST BRIEFINGMOTIONOUTLOOKMETHODSAPI☀ AUTO

FORECAST CONTEXT

DATA THROUGH 2026-10-12 · UPDATED 2026-10-13 11:02 UTC

ERA5 + GFS2.5°DAILY
BriefingStratospherePolar vortex
dT_N_10

T(90N) − T(60N) 10 hPa

Zonal-mean temperature gradient; positive values mean the pole is warmer than 60°N (the older WMO warming criterion).