FORECASTCONTEXT.COM · THE LARGE-SCALE STATE BEHIND THE FORECAST BRIEFINGMOTIONOUTLOOKMETHODSAPI☀ AUTO

FORECAST CONTEXT

DATA THROUGH 2026-10-12 · UPDATED 2026-10-13 11:02 UTC

ERA5 + GFS2.5°DAILY
BriefingStratosphereVortex geometry
vortex_aspect_ratio

Vortex aspect ratio

Elongation of the 10-hPa vortex. Above 2.4 for 7+ days = split; about 1.9–2.4 with an intact vortex = stretched. — Seviour et al. 2013